People who know about Peak Oil know the name Daniel Yergin. Yergin founded the Cambridge Energy Research Energy Associates (CERA) to provide analysis and research on energy issues. Every major oil company, most minor ones, and almost any government and private agency with energy planning needs purchases research from CERA.
Apparently, CERA and Yergin are apparently an inside joke among oil experts who seemingly take his numbers and predictions with a grain of salt. Yergin consistently forecasts lower oil prices and consistently gets it wrong. Last June, for example, CERA predicted $60 oil by the beginning of 2008 because that’s what the “fundamentals” support. As everybody knows, we’re at $100 with no hurricanes or other large disasters affecting our supply. Yergin and CERA consistently promote the fantastic idea that oil companies can producers 110 million barrels per day within the next decade.
In spite of CERA’s dismal track record, the media consistently turns to CERA as a “highly respected” expert on oil prices and oil futures, with Yergin cited as “one of the world’s foremost experts on energy.” There doesn’t seem to be a sense of history or accountability for journalists who accept Yergin’s credentials (a PhD and a Pulitzer) without checking his history. He’s undoubtedly a brilliant guy, but the facts are clear that the numbers from CERA just don’t add up.
Inspiring Green Leadership
Speaking of Peak Oil, I met Andre Angelantoni yesterday at the Eco Summit yesterday in Santa Clara. Andre is the founder of Inspiring Green Leadership, which seeks to encourage individuals and businesses to make the changes that will be required in a world that is increasingly resource constrained. Andre introduced the idea of Peak Oil to the program participants.
Angelantoni encourages everybody with an interest in sustainability to become leaders during this time of coming change. He encourages these leaders to help create communities that are self sustaining, with roles in transportation, food production, power use reduction, and health care. Besides his own website, he pointed conference participants to The Oil Drum, Relocalize and Oil Depletion Protocol.