Category: peak oil

Rockefellers: Change crucial for future of Exxon

Members of the Rockefeller family, descendants of the man who founded ExxonMobil forerunner Standard Oil, are calling for changes in governance and is urging the company to cut greenhouse gas emissions and look into renewable fuels in shareholder resolutions sponsored by the family. Exxon management opposes the resolutions.

The family “are concerned Exxon’s senior management has tunnel vision and is too absorbed with the challenges of daily management of multibillion dollar oil and natural-gas projects to ask hard questions about the future of fossil fuels. Mr. Tillerson and other Exxon executives have said they believe oil and gas will represent the vast majority of energy consumption for decades,” according to The Wall Street Journal.

Although the family does not own a controlling share of ExxonMobil, the Rockefellers symbolic introduction of these resolutions has gotten the attention of management and hope other shareholders will join them.

Read more at wsj.com. The London Times Online also discusses the challenges faced by ExxonMobil as they move into they future:

While the Rockefellers beat their breasts, most shareholders will continue to love the fat Exxon dividend.

Yet underlying the protest from the trust fund Rockers is a big problem for oil companies – their ever-increasing reliance on the support of governments and regulators.

Exxon’s riposte to the climate change and peak oil lobbies is that technology rather than regulation will provide answers to our energy problems.

It is a disingenuous argument because the energy industry is at the governments’ knees begging for help – big dollops of taxpayer cash to build experimental power stations.

Tip of the hat to Jack for this article.

Drop the Federal gas tax and watch Big Oil profits GROW

The Federal gas tax is currently at 18.4 cents per gallon. John McCain proposes a national holiday of this gas tax between Memorial Day and Labor Day this summer. Let’s say his proposal passes through both houses of Congress and President Bush signs it into law. What happens?

1. The 18.4 cent Federal gas tax is no longer charged.

2. The price at the pump drops, say, 15 cents per gallon.

3. People buy more gasoline because it’s cheaper! Hurray!

4. Uh oh, the supply of gasoline hasn’t actually gone up. The price at the pump creeps back up to $4 to regulate demand as gasoline follows the law of supply and demand.

5. Big Oil pockets the 18.4 cent difference and makes even more money because they don’t have this federal tax expense! Hurray for them and their stockholders! Hurray also for the foreign oil companies from whom the U.S. imports over half it oil.

John McCain says “The effect of this ‘gas tax holiday’ will be an immediate economic stimulus” — and he’s right. It will be an immediate economic stimulus to the Big Oil Companies who are already making record profits. The proposed Federal gas tax holiday will provide zero benefit to the everyday driver, commuter and consumer. John McCain’s proposed tax holiday benefits Saudi Aramco, the National Iranian Oil Company, Petróleos de Venezuela, Lukoil, Royal Dutch Shell, Petroleos Mexicano, Petrobras, ExxonMobil, Imperial Oil and all the rest while leaving America with no long term energy strategy.

Gasoline elasticity

It turns out the gasoline demand does have some elasticity, even outside of the context of large natural disasters. In California, gasoline is now about 50 cents more expensive than a year ago, and gasoline consumption has dropped 4% over the past year in California. That never happens outside of natural disasters, but it looks like Californians are adjusting to some degree.

$3.58 / gallon

That matches the expectation in this Wall Street Journal article. In the United States, gasoline consumption has dropped 1.1% from the previous year, but over the long term consumption is forecast to drop 4% for every 10% increase in gas prices as consumers make decisions about their transportation choices and where they live. Part of the reason gas prices are hitting Americans so hard right now is because of choices we made a decade ago about transportation and housing development, when resources were cheap.

This Grist article has more on the topic, including some mockery of Daniel Yergin (and why isn’t Yergin completely discredited yet?), and a hat tip for those already finding solutions to high gas prices:

Anne Heedt, of Clovis, Calif., has been moving toward a more fuel-efficient lifestyle for the past few years. She owns a Toyota Prius hybrid but takes her bike on errands when weather permits.

“We’re not always going to have the same accessibility to gasoline that we’ve had in past decades, so we do have to start thinking about what we’re going to do over the next 50 years,” said the 31-year-old Ms. Heedt, who used to work at a medical office but is between jobs.

Meanwhile, Terrapass asks Copenhagen Cycleliciousness guy for his expertise in how to get more people on bikes. It’s a multipart interview, but the first installment suggests we can get there by opening more commuter-oriented bike shops in America:

Here in Copenhagen there are bike shops on almost every main street and they sell primarily bikes that you call “commuter bikes” in the States.

Which reminds me that I have a followup from the North American Handmade Bicycle Show about this topic — Amy Walker of Canada’s Momentum Magazine led a panel discussion on City Bikes at the show. I took notes, I’ve talked with Natalie Ramsland and Mike Flanigan, now I just need to organize the notes and post them.

In the meantime, Carlton in the UK asked me to get the word about this meeting on peak oil and cycling policy in Scotland:

Spokes Spring Public Meeting – Climate Change, Peak Oil and Scottish Cycling Policy. Weds 19 March, 7.30 [doors open 6.45 for coffee, stall, mixing]. At Augustine United Church George IV Bridge, Edinburgh.

Speakers:

  • David Somervell, Energy and Sustainability Manager, University of Edinburgh – speaking on climate change.
  • Dr Mandy Meikle, Depletion Scotland – speaking on energy supply and peak oil.
  • Kirsty Lewin, head of the Scottish Government’s Sustainable Transport Team – speaking on government cycling policy in the light of the above challenges.

Fat Boy Biking has his thoughts on how more expensive gasoline is changing the driving habits of Americans.

Sheyrl Crow – Gasoline

Sheryl Crow sees a Mad Max future in “Gasoline.”

Way back in the year of 2017
The sun was growing hotter
And oil was way beyond its peak
When crazy Hector Johnson broke into a refinery
And the black gold started flowing
Just like Boston tea

It was the summer of the riots
And London sat in sweltering heat
And the gangs of Mini Coopers
Took the battle to the streets
But when the creed was handed down
For no more trucks and no more cars
They threw cans of petrol through the windows at Scotland Yard

Full lyrics at Sheryl Crow discussion board. Via The Drum Beat.

Dan Yergin fan club

People who know about Peak Oil know the name Daniel Yergin. Yergin founded the Cambridge Energy Research Energy Associates (CERA) to provide analysis and research on energy issues. Every major oil company, most minor ones, and almost any government and private agency with energy planning needs purchases research from CERA.

Apparently, CERA and Yergin are apparently an inside joke among oil experts who seemingly take his numbers and predictions with a grain of salt. Yergin consistently forecasts lower oil prices and consistently gets it wrong. Last June, for example, CERA predicted $60 oil by the beginning of 2008 because that’s what the “fundamentals” support. As everybody knows, we’re at $100 with no hurricanes or other large disasters affecting our supply. Yergin and CERA consistently promote the fantastic idea that oil companies can producers 110 million barrels per day within the next decade.

In spite of CERA’s dismal track record, the media consistently turns to CERA as a “highly respected” expert on oil prices and oil futures, with Yergin cited as “one of the world’s foremost experts on energy.” There doesn’t seem to be a sense of history or accountability for journalists who accept Yergin’s credentials (a PhD and a Pulitzer) without checking his history. He’s undoubtedly a brilliant guy, but the facts are clear that the numbers from CERA just don’t add up.


Inspiring Green Leadership

Speaking of Peak Oil, I met Andre Angelantoni yesterday at the Eco Summit yesterday in Santa Clara. Andre is the founder of Inspiring Green Leadership, which seeks to encourage individuals and businesses to make the changes that will be required in a world that is increasingly resource constrained. Andre introduced the idea of Peak Oil to the program participants.

Angelantoni encourages everybody with an interest in sustainability to become leaders during this time of coming change. He encourages these leaders to help create communities that are self sustaining, with roles in transportation, food production, power use reduction, and health care. Besides his own website, he pointed conference participants to The Oil Drum, Relocalize and Oil Depletion Protocol.